ASEAN''s wind energy potential
Based on Bloomberg''s New Energy Finance "New Energy Outlook" report, solar and wind power generation will dominate the future of electricity
New analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that the share of solar and wind energy in the power generation mix in Southeast Asian countries must reach approximately 23% by 2030 to align with the 2050 Net Zero Emission (NZE) scenario. Combined solar and wind generation in ASEAN grew from 4.2 TWh to 50 TWh between 2015 and 2022.
Thailand is one of the largest producers of utility-scale solar and wind power in ASEAN, with over 3 GW of renewable capacity. Two-thirds of this capacity comes from onshore wind power. Thailand's national energy targets include 10 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind in operation by 2030 and net zero emissions goals for 2065.
There is currently a total of 222GW of announced, pre-construction and construction-stage utility-scale wind and solar capacity in ASEAN countries, according to GEM's research. More than 185GW of this pipeline of projects is in the Philippines and Vietnam, meaning they account for more than 80% of prospective capacity in the region.
The global average, barring China, is over twice that of ASEAN countries, at 7% prospective capacity under construction. ASEAN countries have over 28 GW of operating utility-scale solar and wind capacity and a 20% increase in operating capacity since January 2023 and make up 9% of ASEAN countries' total electrical capacity.
For this report, we calculate capacity additions required in Southeast Asia to meet the combined wind and solar share target of 23% by 2030, set out in the IEA NZE scenario. We estimate the required electricity generation by 2030, using ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) average annual electricity growth rate projection of 5.8%.
Meanwhile, wind generation recorded a decline in Indonesia (-0.1 TWh), the Philippines (-0.2 TWh) and Thailand (-1.3 TWh) in the same year. Only Viet Nam recorded a 236% (+5.7 TWh) jump, driven by the completion of additional wind power plants. Other ASEAN countries have reported zero generation from wind sources.
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